Stupid River

Well, my decent play has continued through the month of September.  Not sure if I'll get to play again this month.
Played last night in the regular Sunday night game at Vision Lanes.  Not sure the total number of players, but it was in the 50's.  They listed paying 5 spots, but ended up paying two bubbles.
First place paid around $535.  I came in 7, the final bubble, for my buy-in of $35.
I got knocked out on a bad beat that I couldn't avoid.  Some thoughts:
We had been at the FT for about half hour.  Started with 9 at the table.  Quickly lost one.  The dude who busted in 8 lasted a while.  We had talked bubble for a while, but the fella to my right would have none of it so early.  He was an irritating one.  He had an iPad, listening to music over his Beats by Dre.  I kind of think he may have been high.  He only mumbled and was constantly playing with his iPad.  Earlier, he went all in with AKss against the 9th place finisher.  No. 9 had 4's.  AK immediately started whining about never winning these and put his head down until the guy who lost informed him of the result.  Seemed rude.
Another hand the dude won on a 4 card flush and the dealer pushed chips his way.  He was fiddling with his iPad and didn't know that he won, or how he won.

That said, he had a bunch of chips...about twice as many as me...possibly a bit more.

So, it folds to him, with blinds being 30k/15k.  He was small blind, I was BB.  He glanced at his cards and mumbled all in.  I looked down at AK and knew I was good.  I wanted him to re-iterate he was all in so that he couldn't get away from the hand for claims of confusion.  I had to ask him twice before I could understand what he said, and STILL waited for him to push chips in before I called.  What I'm telling you is that he was mumbling.

I called.  The flop was 7, 8, 9 and I knew I was pretty done.  I know the odds are still on my side as he's got 10 outs 2 times so I was a 60/40 favorite.  The turn was an 8 so now I'm a 4 to 1 favorite.  The river was a 6, so he hit the straight an I was done.

2 Positives:  I got my money in good and got my investment back.

I had a headache for the last few hours and am proud of myself for pushing back a few urges to push/call light just get be done.  I feel like I'm doing a pretty good job of putting people in tough spots, and stay out of tough spots myself.  I did play a few hands wrong and would play a few hands differently.
One hand for example:
I was in MP 66.  I raised PF about 3x.  Villain calls from cut off.  He'd been pretty active.  I didn't see a lot of cards from him but mostly middle to big aces.  I got an overly aggressive vibe from him although I didn't see enough cards from him to verify it, and I don't recall seeing him in the room before.
The flop came J83 with two diamonds.  Now, I don't think my plan was terribly solid here.  I thought this was a pretty good flop for me, although J was in his range (KJ, AJ, QJ, J10), I thought that I could rep a pretty big hand with my pre-flop raise and then a check raise.  One thing I've done a lot of was c-betting and I thought maybe if I check raise here, I could rep a big hand.  So, I checked, he bet a little over pot (1400 I think) and I re-raised to 4600.  He insta-pushed and I folded here.  He asked if I was on a flush draw and didn't show, which tells me he had a big Jack and he thought I was looser than I was.
Not sure if I should just float there and set mine.  He's got two diamonds a lot of times there, and maybe 5's or 7's occasionally.  I'm pretty sure I'm behind, but I think I could have flatted there, maybe catch a set and take him out.

Last two hands to note:  First hand of the night.  This has never happened to me before.

I was in the 7 slot on the first hand with pocket 8's.  I raised to 250 with blinds being 25/50.  I have a hard time betting 150 in the first round.  We've got 35,000 chips in front of us....but whatever.

The villain re-raises me from the BB to 650.  I flat him there and put him on a big Ace or so.  No history with the guy and a twitchy read.

Flop comes 8 high with two diamonds.  Gin.  I bet a little less than the pot and he re-raised me all in.  Yep, you read that right.  He bet 34,000 into a pot that had 2 grand in it on the first hand.  Well, I had the nuts and thought I was looking at AK of diamonds...really there were now hands that made sense for him to have.  I showed my set and he flipped over KK.  Two cards later I had 70,025 and he walked out the door, leaving a table of guys shaking their heads.

A few hands later I have K10 in the SB.  I complete and probably 5 other people come along.  The Button raises, but not much so I call and so does everyone else.   The flop comes 10 10 6.  I check and it checks around.  I think I should bet there, but I was hoping for a check raise potential.  Ace comes on the turn.  I bet and get a caller.   

A river Ace and I know I'm sunk. 

I bet in the 4k range.  Button repops to 10k.  So, it'll cost me 6k to win 18 or so.  Getting 3 to 1 on the chance he hit the nut flush or a bluff was too much for me to take and I call.  He flips over AK and crushes me.  Like a post a few weeks ago, it's frustrating when I'm sure I'm beat, but I call anyways.  

This guy kept giving me the vibe he's a bluffer but showed the nuts each time, and never got caught bluffing.
There's a saying in poker that if you never get caught bluffing, you're not doing it enough.  So, my read may be totally wrong on the guy.  He's a younger fella, so maybe it's just some bias built into my game that I have to deal with.

On the fence

Bubbled the final table tonight.  There were about 45 players and the house was paying the top 4.  Kind of a standard night.  Ran my stack up from 35k to 75k after a couple of hours.  Played pretty well, mostly playing my position fairly aggressively. I called just one hand pre-flop for the first hour.  I had 6x7x in the cut off and just limped in...and folded after the flop. Terrible.
Most of the hands I played in the first two hours I raised between 2.5x and 3x.  I took a lot of pots down on the flop.  Only won one hand with a pre-flop raise in the first hour.  Still think this is one of the best ways of playing that I've discovered in the last few months:  Never limp into an unopened pot (ever!) and if your cards aren't good enough to raise then they aren't good enough to play. (Of course I'm talking about when I VPIP, not the blinds)
This is good for a few things.
Reasons from (almost) always raising pre-flop in an unraised pot

• It builds the pot up
• Usually in the early parts of the tournament most decent sized bets are going to be called a number of times. and the further through the table you go the better chance that they'll call with a worse hand, just because people have heard about this Pot Odds thing.  
• This is why you have to have a fairly wide range in hands that you are raising with.  You can't always bet the nuts and fold everything else.  Suited connectors, from 67 on up, to any pair at all will be worth a raise, particularly early in the tournament.  Now I'm not saying I raise every suited connector or ever pair had.  It's also about position and if there was a raise ahead of me.  I could have 67 of spades on the button, but if there is a raise and a re-raise in front of me, I'll fold them.  Where as if i'm in the Higjack (HJ) the Cut Off (CO)  with 6s7s it folds to me, I'll rease 2.5x to 3x the big blind. 
• It hides your hand well
• If you raise preflop, many times people will automatically put you on some kind of an Ace.  This helps you if you flop an ace (AND ARE IN POSITION) and you don't have one.  Often times it will check to you and you almost always should bed..around the size of the pot.  Most often this bet will get through and you'll pick up those pots...and remember, they've been raised.
• Sometimes you're going to get credit for a strong hand when you're not.  So when a flop appears to miss your range actually HITS your range, it'll hit it hard.  I've stacked off people when I've raised with 6s4s from the cutoff and got few callers.  The flop went A 6 4.  I led with a small bet and was re-raised.  Turned a 4.  Villain goes all in with AJ and is out!  If you miss a flop and C bet bet gets called, you shut down.
• The real tricky spot is if you have big hand, say JJ+ or even AK and there is a raise in front of you.  This spot can be interesting to just flat a raise.  Generally speaking, if I'm in late position with a big hand and there's a raise in front of me, I'll re-raise.  With a middle hand 77-1010, AQ/AJ suited I'll probably flat, regardless of position.

Two hands to talk about today:

• I was in middle position with 50k or so and the blinds were 1k-2k
• I look down at 22
• The dude to my left only had 12k and I knew it was a matter of time before he tossed it in.  There were two pretty aggro players behind him, so in my mind, if I limp and he pushes, one of the two of them would likely re-raise to isolate with a wide range.
• I didn't like the spot so I folded.
• Dude pushed
• Aggro #1 re-reaised to 24k.  Aggro #2 tanked and folded.
• I felt proud of myself for a correct read
• A two came on the flop....crap.
• I actually would have boated and Aggro #2 would have picked up a set so I would have stacked the lot of them.
• I'm pretty sure if I raise pre-flop the short stack goes all in anyways (QQ).  This prices in the other two Aggros cause Aggro #1 doesn't re-raise (KQ).  The flop wask 2K7 so it would have cause me with a set, Aggro #1 with TP and a Middle pair with Aggro #2.  I'm pretty sure I better than triple up on that spot.  
• So, from a specific hand point of view, I should have played it.  From a read point of view, I was correct, so I think it's a good lay down over the long haul.

The last hand I want to think about is the last one I played:

• I was in the BB with ~80k. 
• Blinds were 4000-8000.  
• SB had me two to one in chips.
• I look down at KhQd.
• SB pops to 16k
• No history with this guy outside of the previous 10 or so hands.
• Seemed a bit aggressive, but that's more of an impression than anything.  He hadn't gotten out of line.
• I go all in for my final 73k.
• He thinks for about 5 seconds and calls with As10c.
• I flop a King.  He turns an Ace and I'm out.

So, things to think about:

• How often am I ahead there.
• Hands I Beat
• I think he raises EVER King he finds there, so I'm ahead of all those.
• I've got ALL those crushed...like almost 3 to 1.
• Same for hands like QJ, J10
• Hands I don't beat
• I think he takes a different line for AA, KK, QQ and maybe even AK.
• AQ will probably look the same.
• I think of those hands, AQ is most likely and puts me in a really bad spot.
• When I'm beat, I'm really beat.
• He also plays pretty much any Ace that way in that spot.
• That's where I was, and I'm a 3-2 dog in all these spots
• With my 8 and his 16 there is 24k in the pot.  In most spots, I'm getting called here I think so I've got 73k to win another 73 plus the 24k for 97k total.
• Races
• I'm pretty sure he makes the same play with 22 all the way to JJ.  He may do something a little different after that, but I'm racing all those hands.
• Put it all together:
• I'm ahead of a lot of his range. 3 to 1 ahead
• Crushed by a very little. 4 to 1 dog
• Behind by a good chunk. 3 to 2 dog
• Racing everything else. 50/50
• My conclusion was/is that overall that's a positive EV play to push here.
• On this hand specifically, the only think that makes me question is: If I flat call pre flop and push my last 68k on the flop, does he fold his Ace?  He may, so I may have won the hand if I had played it differently.  I'm for sure all in on the flop with TPSK and my chip stack.  I think he often calls me or pushes himself so I don't think it turns out different often.  I guess I could have folded, but that seems like a really tight fold in a Blind Battle. 

Near Perfect and Improving

I wish.

The post title is something I've been saying for a while now, after someone asks me how I'm doing.
Sometimes it's true, sometimes its far from the truth.

In relation to this, I've been watching a lot of poker lately, and really, really wanting to be good at it.  Over the last few years, I've seen and read about many poker players, have seen some of their lifestyles, and have dared to dream...maybe I could snatch a little of that.
Of course, I've also read about guys who lived in cars for a while, had apartments with 5 or 6 other wanna-be's and have lost a boat load of money.  I don't want to be any of those.

So I sit here and I think of playing poker.  I even told someone the other day that I kind of regret not discovering my love of poker until my late 30's...that had I found it in my teens or early 20's, I may have given going pro a shot.  I think that I may have been pretty good.  I think that I still may be pretty good.
But there's a problem.  A mental problem.  You see, when I watch poker (or read about it or listen to pros talk about it) I think that I'm not ever going to be smart enough to play!  At least not smart enough to play on that level.  I listen to guys (and some gals...I'm looking at you Selbst!)  talk about the finer arts of EV on the river, merging your bluffing range with your value range, ICM and the like and, while I understand it, I don't play it like that.

When I finish playing a session, I look back on my play and I often see some pretty sophisticated plays that they give fancy names to, but I don't think like that at the tables.  Oh sure, I think about the range of the other players, and betting for value and such, and sometimes I calculate my odds of hitting versus pot odds in particular situations, but I don't do the fancy analysis all the time.
And because I don't think fancy schmancy all the time, I think that I can't beat the more "advanced" player.
Recently, I realized how wrong I am.

Let me digress (even further).  There's some psychology at work here that I need to work out.
Some people think that, societally speaking, things are worse than ever. People see what they see and think the worst.  Like, if I told you that violent crime is down, including crimes involving guns, you'd think I'm wrong.   I'm not wrong.  Violent crime is VERY low historically speaking, but because of TV and the news, people think it's worse than ever.  Even the most optimistic among us fall into the trap.  People think that everything was better when they were young...to poorly quote a song "prices were low and politicians didn't philander" The problem is, problems were pretty much the same, relatively speaking and politicians always sucked.  In short, we tend to have a skewed view of things.

I realized it was the same with poker.

I watch guys who sound so smart when they are analyzing hands (in retrospect or when they aren't involved at all) make terribly stupid plays, chase when they have no business chasing, and do things that they say you should NEVER do.
I see this with pros on YouTube/Pokerstars.TV/WSOP.com etc and with smart money at my local card house and realize they may talk big, sound smart and have all the strategery in the world, but they still make mistakes.  They don't always make the right play.  I can still out think and out play them.  Maybe not all the time, but enough.
If I keep working at it, study and practice, I can be as good as a lot of these guys and better than most. I may not be near perfect, but I can keep improving.  That should be good enough.

First Attempt

So, at the tables last night, some of the locals were talking about a big monthly tournament that happens at the Soaring Eagle casino on the last Saturday of the month.
It's $185.00 which would suck up most of my bankroll, which is currently set at $300, so I've got to try and earn some extra cash over the next month.  Or win some more at the tables. Or both.  How about both?
Yeah. Both.

Quads Will

Two weeks in a row I flopped quads.  Last week, I flopped 4 Queens.  Today, I flopped 4 aces.  That was nice, but the hand before it was the real interesting hand of the night.

With Blinds in the 100-200, I was in LP with pocket sixes.  UTG limps, I raise to 600, the SB calls, BB folds and limper calls.
The flop comes 6c-7x-10c for a flopped bottom set.
SB be1200.  Limper folds.  I repop to 4000.  SB Calls
Ace of spades comes on the turn.  I initially think this is a good card for me, cause that would give the SB top two, but I've got a concern that I'm already beat, so I've got to be smart.
He bets 4000 I raise to 8000.  He calls and immediately pushes the rest of his stack in blind, announcing that  he's all in to and says I'm hoping for a third club.  The river blanks with a 3 of hearts.
He's all in for all my chips.
So the board is:
6c-7x-10c-As-3h and I'm looking at a set of sixes.
His range at this point is:
Pocket 7's, 8's, 9's, 10's,  Most medium to big aces (A-8 and up) suited connectors starting with 7,8.  KQ of clubs, maybe J9 of clubs, but that would be at the bottom of his range.
I tanked for 30 seconds or so and fold my cards face up.
He doesn't show but later tells me he had pocket 10's for top set.  Most people at my table though it was a bad fold, the villain was surprised I folder.  10's made sense for his line, so I'l believe him for them.
The very next hand I flopped quads and got a little of my money back.

I grinded for the next  hour or so, not really getting to many hands to play.  I was never really able to get any momentum going as the cards or the action was never a good combo for me.
I focused a lot on making sure I played my position well.  I mostly stayed away from out of position plays, except for the blinds.  I think the only UTG play I made the whole night was pocket aces. (I had them twice!)
The second time I got them, UTG, I raised to 3x BB, and got two callers.  Dude to my immediate left and who I didn't think was very good, and a slightly loose, but good player on the other side of the table.
The flop cam QJ5 rainbow. I bet 8 large and the dude insta-calls me.  The guy on the other side hates that!  He tanks and finally calls.  Turn blanks and I rebet 8 grand.  Insta-call again and the other side folds.  River is a complete blank and the only hand I can put my neighbor on is QJ for a flopped two pair.  As soon as I check he announces he missed and tables 9 10.  The other side says he folded AQ so I probably could have won a bit more if Mr. Instacall hadn't been in there, but this hand put me back over my original starting stack, so I was pretty happy.


Things to work on:  Sqeezing and three betting from position with a wider range.
I had a few leaks with some calls that were a little light on my part, that I may have wanted to bet/raise, and I have to work harder on trying to bet the villain off a week river hand.  All in all, happy with my progress.
In the last 14 weeks, I've final tabled 9 times and cashed 5.  I've started tracking them officially the last 5 weeks and you can view my statistics on my google docs Poker Info link.