Most of the hands I played in the first two hours I raised between 2.5x and 3x. I took a lot of pots down on the flop. Only won one hand with a pre-flop raise in the first hour. Still think this is one of the best ways of playing that I've discovered in the last few months: Never limp into an unopened pot (ever!) and if your cards aren't good enough to raise then they aren't good enough to play. (Of course I'm talking about when I VPIP, not the blinds)
This is good for a few things.
Reasons from (almost) always raising pre-flop in an unraised pot
- It builds the pot up
- Usually in the early parts of the tournament most decent sized bets are going to be called a number of times. and the further through the table you go the better chance that they'll call with a worse hand, just because people have heard about this Pot Odds thing.
- This is why you have to have a fairly wide range in hands that you are raising with. You can't always bet the nuts and fold everything else. Suited connectors, from 67 on up, to any pair at all will be worth a raise, particularly early in the tournament. Now I'm not saying I raise every suited connector or ever pair had. It's also about position and if there was a raise ahead of me. I could have 67 of spades on the button, but if there is a raise and a re-raise in front of me, I'll fold them. Where as if i'm in the Higjack (HJ) the Cut Off (CO) with 6s7s it folds to me, I'll rease 2.5x to 3x the big blind.
- It hides your hand well
- If you raise preflop, many times people will automatically put you on some kind of an Ace. This helps you if you flop an ace (AND ARE IN POSITION) and you don't have one. Often times it will check to you and you almost always should bed..around the size of the pot. Most often this bet will get through and you'll pick up those pots...and remember, they've been raised.
- Sometimes you're going to get credit for a strong hand when you're not. So when a flop appears to miss your range actually HITS your range, it'll hit it hard. I've stacked off people when I've raised with 6s4s from the cutoff and got few callers. The flop went A 6 4. I led with a small bet and was re-raised. Turned a 4. Villain goes all in with AJ and is out! If you miss a flop and C bet bet gets called, you shut down.
- The real tricky spot is if you have big hand, say JJ+ or even AK and there is a raise in front of you. This spot can be interesting to just flat a raise. Generally speaking, if I'm in late position with a big hand and there's a raise in front of me, I'll re-raise. With a middle hand 77-1010, AQ/AJ suited I'll probably flat, regardless of position.
Two hands to talk about today:
The last hand I want to think about is the last one I played:
- I was in middle position with 50k or so and the blinds were 1k-2k
- I look down at 22
- The dude to my left only had 12k and I knew it was a matter of time before he tossed it in. There were two pretty aggro players behind him, so in my mind, if I limp and he pushes, one of the two of them would likely re-raise to isolate with a wide range.
- I didn't like the spot so I folded.
- Dude pushed
- Aggro #1 re-reaised to 24k. Aggro #2 tanked and folded.
- I felt proud of myself for a correct read
- A two came on the flop....crap.
- I actually would have boated and Aggro #2 would have picked up a set so I would have stacked the lot of them.
- I'm pretty sure if I raise pre-flop the short stack goes all in anyways (QQ). This prices in the other two Aggros cause Aggro #1 doesn't re-raise (KQ). The flop wask 2K7 so it would have cause me with a set, Aggro #1 with TP and a Middle pair with Aggro #2. I'm pretty sure I better than triple up on that spot.
- So, from a specific hand point of view, I should have played it. From a read point of view, I was correct, so I think it's a good lay down over the long haul.
The last hand I want to think about is the last one I played:
- I was in the BB with ~80k.
- Blinds were 4000-8000.
- SB had me two to one in chips.
- I look down at KhQd.
- SB pops to 16k
- No history with this guy outside of the previous 10 or so hands.
- Seemed a bit aggressive, but that's more of an impression than anything. He hadn't gotten out of line.
- I go all in for my final 73k.
- He thinks for about 5 seconds and calls with As10c.
- I flop a King. He turns an Ace and I'm out.
So, things to think about:
- How often am I ahead there.
- Hands I Beat
- I think he raises EVER King he finds there, so I'm ahead of all those.
- I've got ALL those crushed...like almost 3 to 1.
- Same for hands like QJ, J10
- Hands I don't beat
- I think he takes a different line for AA, KK, QQ and maybe even AK.
- AQ will probably look the same.
- I think of those hands, AQ is most likely and puts me in a really bad spot.
- When I'm beat, I'm really beat.
- He also plays pretty much any Ace that way in that spot.
- That's where I was, and I'm a 3-2 dog in all these spots
- With my 8 and his 16 there is 24k in the pot. In most spots, I'm getting called here I think so I've got 73k to win another 73 plus the 24k for 97k total.
- Races
- I'm pretty sure he makes the same play with 22 all the way to JJ. He may do something a little different after that, but I'm racing all those hands.
- Put it all together:
- I'm ahead of a lot of his range. 3 to 1 ahead
- Crushed by a very little. 4 to 1 dog
- Behind by a good chunk. 3 to 2 dog
- Racing everything else. 50/50
- My conclusion was/is that overall that's a positive EV play to push here.
- On this hand specifically, the only think that makes me question is: If I flat call pre flop and push my last 68k on the flop, does he fold his Ace? He may, so I may have won the hand if I had played it differently. I'm for sure all in on the flop with TPSK and my chip stack. I think he often calls me or pushes himself so I don't think it turns out different often. I guess I could have folded, but that seems like a really tight fold in a Blind Battle.
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